Don’t expect US-Iran war before 2021

(Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders report directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R))  There is no reason to disbelieve the boast by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming credit personally for US President Donald Trump’s decision to designate Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a “foreign terrorist organisation” under American law. It …

Trump takes his Venezuelan itch to the UN

(President Maduro’s supporters mark 20th anniversary of rise to power of socialist predecessor Hugo Chavez, Caracas, Feb. 2, 2019) The phone briefing by a “high-ranking” US official on Friday regarding the situation in Venezuela triggered speculation that the Trump administration is considering the use of military force against the Maduro government. The US official said …

China’s PLA troops in Venezuela is game changer

(Chinese PLA personnel pose with members of Venezuela’s National Bolivarian Armed Forces, March 29, 2019) The reported arrival of Chinese military personnel in Venezuela last weekend is undoubtedly a major event in world politics.  Unlike Russia, which has a history of force projection abroad, this is an extremely rare Chinese move. Although vital Chinese interests …

US, Israel punish Turkey’s Erdogan

(President Erdogan’s supporters celebrate election victory, Ankara, April 1, 2019) “Turkey is a global “swing state.” It has a large and growing economy, a strategic location, a democratic government, and mixed views about prevailing international arrangements. Like the other three global swing states — Brazil, India, and Indonesia — Turkey’s choices will influence whether today’s …

Russia throws down the gauntlet to US on Venezuela

(An airplane with the Russian flag was seen at Simon Bolivar International Airport in Caracas, Venezuela, March 24, 2019.) The Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova acknowledged in Moscow on Tuesday that Russian “specialists” are indeed in Venezuela within the ambit of a 2001 military-technical cooperation agreement with Caracas. Zakharova underscored that Russia’s bilateral military cooperation …

Trump’s Golan is a megalomaniac’s own goal

(Syria defending against Israeli missiles attacking Damascus, January 2019) The US President Donald Trump’s decree on March 26 granting official US recognition to Israel’s illegal annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights does not create any new fact on the ground.  Trump’s motivations are fairly clear — boost Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s prospects in the April election …

Trump unleashed. This is how it matters.

(Special counsel Robert Mueller walks with his wife, Ann, in Washington, D.C., on Sunday.) The big news from Washington is that special counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry into President Donald Trump’s ‘Russia collusion’ is unfounded. Attorney General William Barr’s communication to the US Congress says, “The special counsel’s investigation did not find that the Trump campaign …