Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (L) and Syria’s Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, Damascus, Jan. 30, 2025
The appointment of Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as Interim President on January 29 marks the advent of a new era in Syria’s history. The New York Times in a feature article on al-Sharaa called the HTS an “Islamist rebel group once linked to Al Qaeda.” [Emphasis added.]
Times was evasive about the years he spent in detention in the custody of the US occupation forces in Iraq or why was he released despite being a top ISIS functionary and allowed to go to Syria at the outbreak of a civil war (where in the Jihadi cauldron ISIS and al-Qaeda were hyperactive) to form the Nusra Front, an affiliate of al Qaeda, but “eventually broke ties with Al Qaeda, and the Nusra Front evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.” [Emphasis added.] It is not uncommon for yesterday’s terrorists to transform as politicians by tomorrow but that is insufficient to explain away the leniency that US military showed under the circumstances.
Anyway, Times goes on to say, “After sweeping to power in Syria last month, Mr. al-Sharaa has seemed to be trying to distance himself from his militant past, ditching his combat fatigues and donning a suit and tie … By eschewing global jihadist ambitions, Mr. al-Sharaa apparently hopes to gain international legitimacy… There are signs that the strategy may be working.”
Indeed, it is. The US has lifted a $10 million bounty on his head and partially eased its economic and financial sanctions against Syria —with the EU in tow. Foreign delegations are queuing up to meet al-Sharaa in Damascus, not only from the US and its European allies but Gulf Arab states, Palestine and Turkey — even Pakistan. Some countries are still holding out, too — China, India, Iran amongst them — given their disquiet that the dividing line between terrorism and Islamist extremism dissipated so easily.
Indeed, the jaw-dropping event last week has been the overnight visit to Damascus on January 28-29 by an inter-ministerial delegation from Moscow headed by Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Special Representative for the Middle East. The Russian visit messaged that al-Sharaa is someone Moscow can do business with.
No sooner than the Russian delegation flew back to Moscow, al-Sharaa’s appointment was announced. Maybe, that was a coincidence, or perhaps, Turkey, which calls the shots in Damascus, wanted precisely such a sequencing.
To be sure, Russian diplomacy is shifting gear. A foreign ministry statement in Moscow said Bogdanov “engaged in substantive discussions” with al-Sharaa. The statement signalled Russia’s willingness to upgrade the relationship with the Islamist government and to extend essential assistance “at this pivotal moment.”
The statement concluded that “Both parties agreed to maintain bilateral engagement with a view to formalising pertinent arrangements, reflecting a mutual resolve to deepen comprehensive ties and understanding between Moscow and Damascus, including in foreign policy spheres.” Moscow seems satisfied with the constructive engagement has formally begun.
There was no reference to the status of the Russian bases, but Bogdanov revealed later that the two sides discussed the issue and agreed to continue consultations. Meanwhile, the Russian military presence remains unchanged.
Bogdanov told journalists: “The meeting (with al-Sharaa) went well overall. It lasted three hours, including an official dinner… The meeting was generally constructive, there was a good atmosphere. But we understand how difficult the (Syrian) situation is.”
Bogdanov said Russia maintained “unwavering support for the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty” of the country, and added: “This is the most important thing. The fact that Syria has been going through in recent years, and the fact that there has been a change of leadership in such a dramatic way, does not change our assessments and our readiness to help stabilise the situation in order to find adequate solutions to socio-political and socio-economic problems.”
Russia seems to have struck an equilibrium in Syria, but then, it is no stranger to the mystique of violent Islamism. A report in the Russian daily Vedomosti (in Russian) nicely captured the quintessence of Moscow’s carefully choreographed diplomatic tango with its catchy title, “What do the new Syrian authorities and Russia want from each other: Bashar al–Assad‘s winners – “compensation“, Moscow – “preservation of military bases.”
There is no question that al-Sharaa’s emergence as a politician and statesman is now an irreversible geopolitical reality. It is further confirmed with the visit by the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to Damascus on Thursday. Upon arrival, Sheikh Tamin announced, “Qatar will continue standing with its Syrian brothers to help them achieve their aspirations for a nation built on unity, justice, and freedom, where its people can live with dignity.”
Conceivably, Qatar loosened its purse strings to persuade disparate groups to align with the HTS. Turkish muscle power combines with Qatar’s wealth to provide the alchemy for the new transitional government. Qatar was a key player fuelling the bloody Syrian civil and it is now back on the Middle Eastern chessboard as the benefactor of Hamas and HTS. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who also funded the jihadi groups in Syria, must have been taken aback by Qatar’s cheekiness.
As interim head of state, al-Sharaa has been entrusted with forming a legislative council to oversee the transition. He has been authorised to form a temporary legislative council that would remain in place until a permanent constitution is drafted and enacted. The duration of the transitional period is unclear. What happens now to the national dialogue conference idea, which the new rulers had previously pledged to organise, also remains fuzzy.
However, the administration has introduced significant political and security reforms. All security agencies affiliated with the Assad regime have been proscribed; Baath Party and all other National Progressive Front parties have been disbanded and their assets confiscated; and a blanket ban has been imposed on reviving these parties under any new name. Equally, all military factions, revolutionary political bodies, and civil organisations have merged into state institutions.
Looking ahead, the role of the external powers remains crucial. Evidently, Turkey, Russia and the Arab countries (and Iran, of course) are stakeholders in Syria’s stability. But the same cannot be said for Israel, which prioritises the projection of power into Syria’s political vacuum. The Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz, while on a field trip to the newly conquered Syrian side of Mount Hermon on Tuesday, defiantly proclaimed on Tuesday that the Israeli occupation of newly conquered territory will continue “indefinitely.”
Israel has comprehensively destroyed Syria’s military capacity to defend itself for the foreseeable future. Basically, Israel wants to keep Syria weak and unstable and prevent any return of Iranian presence. Israel hopes to divide Syria into four cantons with control over southern cantons dominated by US-backed Islamist groups that are working with Israel and influence over a northern canton controlled by the Kurdish groups (who are its proxies against Turkey.)
Israel counts on the the US to align with it on Syria, but President Trump may not be amenable. Israel’s official public broadcasting Kan reported Tuesday that “senior White House officials conveyed a message to their Israeli counterparts indicating that President Trump intends to pull thousands of US troops from Syria.” (According to a Pentagon announcement in December, the US has some 2,000 troops deployed in Syria.)
When asked about the Kan report, President Trump retorted, “I don’t know who said that, but we’ll make a determination on that. We’re not involved in Syria. Syria is in its own mess. They’ve got enough messes over there. They don’t need us involved.” That leaves Israel and Turkey staring at each other. A showdown could be approaching.