US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff (R) met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Tel Aviv, January 11, 2025
Trump frogmarches Netanyahu down the deep stairs
President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and their key operative in the White House, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, hopelessly underestimated President-elect Donald Trump’s quick reflex action to demolish their demonic plot to kickstart a war with Iran by attacking its nuclear installations just before the new president’s inauguration.
Trump was on guard about the “real possibility” that Biden team might create an alibi to attack Iran and trigger a regional war in the final phase of transfer of power that would get him bogged down in a quagmire and potentially derail his administration’s foreign policy strategies on the whole.
The point is, it is in West Asia that Trump’s presidency is threatened by the spectre of a foreign and military policy quagmire — not in Eurasia or Asia-Pacific, much as stakes are high in those two theatres as well. For, Israel’s security is also about US domestic politics!
Indeed, Trump played cool and kept his thoughts to himself. He even allowed a free run for Netanyahu’s grandstanding to project that he had a special equation with Trump and that the latter had planned to confront Iran militarily.
Trump’s choice of Steve Witkoff, a Jew, as his special envoy for West Asia, went relatively unnoticed. Witkoff is an unknown political newcomer in Trump’s incoming team but it may signify the marginalisation of Jared Kushner and the burial of the Abraham Accords.
Certainly, Witkoff, a self-made billionaire (son of a maker of ladies’ coats in New York City), is an interesting choice because he has no previous experience in international diplomacy and his expertise lies in demolishing properties that outlived their utility and erect new edifices and making massive profits out of it — ie., a New York real estate developer and investor like Trump himself. Trump has known his tough negotiating skills, his tenacity to break concrete walls and clinch deals, and create innovative designs in trying conditions.
Trump saw in Witkoff just the man to frogmarch Netanyahu. It was a made-to-order situation, as Trump was determined not to inherit the catastrophic stalemate in West Asia that Biden was leaving behind in league with Netanyahu — with American influence and prestige in the pits regionally and Israel’s reputation irreparably damaged internationally.
Witkoff hit the ground running, as he flew into Tel Aviv to deliver the astonishing message to Netanyahu that Trump wanted a deal in Gaza in place by the time he took office. News soon emerged last week on Israel’s Channel 12 that Trump sent a message to officials in Tel Aviv, urging Israel to avoid any “unnecessary” escalation and refrain from statements that could lead to regional conflicts, particularly during the transition period before his administration begins.
Channel 12 added that “Trump’s aides informed Israeli officials that the incoming US administration aims to achieve stability in the Middle East, focusing on fostering “peace” between Israel and Lebanon and maintaining the ongoing ceasefire.
The report went on to say, “In his discussions with Israeli officials, Trump emphasised that he had no intention of engaging in new wars during the early days of his presidency, as he intends to prioritise addressing domestic issues in the United States.”
Quite obviously, Trump sensed that Netanyahu was orchestrating a doomsday scenario to force his hands at a time when Tehran had been signalling repeatedly that it had no intentions whatsoever to pursue a nuclear weapon programme and has vowed to make 2025 the year when the Iran nuclear issue can be settled with the West. President Masoud Pezeshkian himself has made this pledge alongside an offer to negotiate with the US. (See a riveting interview by the former Israeli PM Ehud Barak with Politico.)
Meanwhile, a powerful neocon voice also appeared giving rationalisation for the Israeli plans to push Trump into the war path. This came in the form of an essay in the Foreign Affairs magazine which appeared on January 6 authored by none other than Richard Haas at the Council of Foreign Relations.
Haas is a prominent fixture in the US foreign policy establishment and his article titled The Iran Opportunity aimed at drumming up opinion against Trump venturing into any breakthrough with Iran as he had done vis-a-vis North Korea in his first term. Haas was transmitting the Israeli signal.
Substantively, Haas’ article was a huge disappointment — a rehash of the fantasises and falsehoods that went for Washington’s Iran policy during the past four decades. Importantly, with no empirical evidence to back up the argument, he insisted that Iran is a much diminished power today after the takeover in Syria by Islamist groups, and a window of opportunity has opened to settle scores with Tehran. In sum, Haas literally reproduced the Israeli narrative under his byline, a wilful deception which gives no credit to his reputation.
However, Trump didn’t like Netanyahu hustling him. Trump remembers how Netanyahu led him up the garden path to order the assassination of the top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani on 3rd January 2020 and then himself scooted at the last minute no sooner than the operation actually got under way, leaving Trump to face the music! (Interestingly, Pezeshkian told NBC News in an interview last week that Tehran never issued any fatwa against Trump on account of Soleimani’s death.)
Trump wouldn’t allow himself to be taken for a ride by Netanyahu all over again, and he explicitly posted on Truth Social a harsh remark about Netanyahu (“deep, dark son of a bitch”) by the American strategic thinker Prof. Jeffrey Sachs at Columbia University in an hour-long event hosted by the Cambridge Union in the UK last month to make the point bluntly that he has no such warm feelings or camaraderie toward Netanyahu (to put it mildly.)
Sachs made copious references to Israel’s pivotal role in triggering regional wars and posted a red alert to the incoming US administration that Netanyahu is on the march again — this time, to start a war with Iran — and Trump should not walk into that trap.
There is no question that the latest Gaza deal was literally shoved down Netanyahu’s throat by Witkoff. According to Israeli reports, Witkoff called Netanyahu’s office from Doha where he was camping to seek a meeting in Tel Aviv last weekend but only to be told off that Friday was the time for Jewish Sabbath. Whereupon, Witkoff, reportedly, used an expletive and summoned Netanyahu to a meeting. Which, of course, Netanyahu complied with. By the way, Israeli cabinet’s formal approval for the Gaza deal was already available within 24 hrs thereafter.
Now, Witkoff, with Trump’s approval of course, “plans to be a near-constant presence in the region in an attempt to prevent the deal from unraveling” and is considering a visit to Gaza Strip “as part of his efforts to keep a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas on track, according to a transition official with direct knowledge of the ceasefire process.” (here)
Trump may be looking beyond the Gaza deal. The positive response from Tehran and the Arab capitals (as well as the overwhelming international support) provides a stimulus for Trump to follow through. Trump understands that West Asia has transformed beyond recognition since he left office and the Iran-Saudi rapprochement and consequent historic shift in Saudi strategy is a crucial template. (See a thought-provoking article in Foreign Affairs, The Saudi Solution? How Riyadh’s Ties to America, Iran, and Israel Could Foster Stability)
The big question is how far Trump will go to bend the arc of history — specifically, will he engage with Tehran? No doubt, back channels are at work — eg., reported meeting on Nov 11 between Elon Musk, close adviser to Trump and Iran’s ambassador to the UN. All sorts of possibilities exist.
[Part-1 of the article is here.]